In April,
Nike Free Run 2 Blanc Bleu Gris Avec La Qualité Authentique, China banking system received a warning shot when Fitch Ratings lowered its long term outlook on the country "issuer default rating" (IDR) to negative from stable. A single notch drop to AA still means renminbi denominated bonds are investment grade. But the ominous message from the ratings agency was that China banks are awash in bad debt after a frenzy of lending,
Nike Free Run 5.0 V4 2014 Pink Mujeres Para Auténtico Barato, and could require a government bailout if their balance sheets deteriorate any time over the next few years. And Fitch has said there is a 60% likelihood of that happening. "There is a possibility that if [the sector] runs into trouble,
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Although several weeks have passed since Fitch report was published,
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Fitch is also now not the only ratings agency to sound the alarm about China banks. In a Moody Investors Service report published in early July,
Nike Free Run hiver de la peau 3.0 Laine 2013 Jaune Gris Hommes Chaussures Pour Vous Avec Fast And Livraison Gratuite à Votre Domicile, analysts acknowledged that the sector is wobblier than they had previously thought. Earlier in the year,
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Nike Roshe Run Azul Janué Hombres Venta Hombres, Moody had warned that Chinese banks could be sitting on far more non performing loans (NPLs) than the 1% of total lending reported by Chinese officials. Largely because of the country trillions of renminbi of loans to local governments,
2012 Nike Free Run 3.0 Violet White Women À Vendre Authentique, Moody says NPLs on the banks balance sheets could rise to between 8% and 12% of total lending,
2012 Nike Free Run 2 Negro Rosa Mujeres Precio Al Por Menor, compared with the 5% to 8% in the ratings agency base case,
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Fuelling the sector growth (and chipping away at its tier one capital) is real estate. Fitch estimates that much of the rapid expansion of bank lending the equivalent of around 140% of GDP last year,
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Moody approximates that China banks have funded at least RMB 8.5 trillion (US$1.3 trillion) of the RMB 10.7 trillion of outstanding local government debt,
Nike Free Run 5.0 V4 2012 Gris Vert femmes Trouvez Les Offres Spéciales Et Les Réductions Sur Styles Populaires Et Commander En Ligne, which was a significant portion of the RMB 14 trillion national stimulus package rolled out in the wake of 2008 global financial crisis (and a higher estimate of the debt than what Chinese officials reported recently following the first ever audit of local government debt). Much of those loans are due in the next few years. While the LGFVs have implicit state backing,
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Victor Shih,
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Nike Free Run Balanza 2014 femmes Gris Orange Outlet Sur Vente, their LGFV bond holdings are highly susceptible to a property market downturn. "Those bonds are completely tied to real estate and land value,
Nike Free Run 5.0 Tr Negro Azul Blanco Mujeres Envío Rápido," says Shih. "If you are going to address the misallocation of capital inthe banking system and credit system,
Nike Free Run Powerlines Ii Naranja Hombres Usted Puede Disfrutar Del Precio y Le Consiguen Mejores Artículos De Calidad Aquí, that going to have huge knock on effects on the profitability and viability of the banks,
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Nike Roshe Run Negro Gris Verde Hombres Para Auténtico Barato," he adds. "What would the government do to maintain stability? You could have a whole host of problems. It almost far too complicated to contemplate."
What more,
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Nike Free Run 3.0 V7 blanc rose Femmes Trouvez Les Offres Spéciales Et Les Réductions Sur Styles Populaires Et Commander En Ligne, "our colleagues placed the risk at 60% that the Chinese banking system could run into trouble within the next two to three years,
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Nike Free Run 4.0 azules claros mujeres negras Son Venta Caliente En El Mercado," says Fitch Ho. "In terms of the sovereign ratings,
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Uomini Nike Free Run 4.0 V2 Pure Platinum Reflect Argento Soar Blu Acquista ora Risparmia Off 40% -60%, we have been giving ourselves a timeframe of 12 to 18 months to observe the development We could take further rating action within this period."
Ho says LGFV and property related lending are the primary areas of concern. The agency estimates that a rise in the NPL ratio to between 15% and 30% could require the equivalent of between 10% and 30% of GDP to support the system. China central bank said in May that the sector NPL ratio was 1.1%,
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The problem could be magnified by the hard to estimate off balance sheet liabilities of the banking sector. According to Ho,
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Nike Roshe Run Red White Women Ici Serait Votre Meilleur Choix," in which the banks are middlemen arranging loans from one corporate client to another. Bloomberg reported in June that China banks helped arrange RMB 320 billion of such loans in the first quarter of 2011 that were not recorded on balance sheets,
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China regulators are aware of the dangers of the banks excessive real estate lending and have been pushing for more restraint,
Nike Free Run 3.0 V5 Ext Lago Blu donne di colore Sale Cheap, while requiring financial institutions to bolster their balance sheets. The central bank has raised reserve requirements for banks 16 times over the past 18 months (currently at 21.5% of their deposits) and has upped interest rates three times this year,
Nike Free Run 5.0 V3 Purple Rose Mujeres Nosotros Outlet Store, with the benchmark one year lending rate now 6.56% and the benchmark one year deposit rate to 3.5% since the latest hike on July 6. The banks are well on their way China Minsheng Banking Corporation has announced plans to issue some RMB 20 billion of convertible bonds in Shanghai while increasing the number of "H" shares it has listed in Hong Kong by about 40%; both Bank of Communications and Bank of China are looking at up to RMB 20 billion each through RMB denominated Hong Kong bond issues; and China CITIC Bank has a RMB 26 billion rights issue in Hong Kong and Shanghai in the works.
Meanwhile,
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Nike Free Run 5.0 Gris Rosa Verde Mujeres Precio Al Por Menor, very soft landing. But it so soft that it really isn a landing at all. The bubble is getting bigger,
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That doesn mean that steps taken now won have an effect,
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Nike Free Run 3.0 mujeres azules Versión Adecuado Para Usted, experts say. In any case,
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2014 Nike Free Run Gimnasio blancas púrpuras Mujeres Suministramos Alta Calidad," says Howie. "The popping of the Chinese bubble will lead to a more sober and realistic reassessment of China,
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In staving off a crisis,
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Nike Free Run 4.0 Mujeres Blue Sky Versión Adecuado Para Usted, or about 98%of GDP. S said a ratings downgrade could be taken within one to three years. debt ceiling brewed Moody and Fitch joined the chorus. as being too big to fail well,
Nike Free Run 4.0 V4 2014 Gris Mujeres Con Calidad Superior, the same can really be said about China. Its problems are more complex and its system needs a real shake out,
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Nike Roshe Run Negro Verde Mujeres Venta Aquí Con Alta Calidad," Howie notes. "There certainly will be a big effort to help China but [if the country goes into meltdown] who knows what the ramifications and fallout will be?"
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